2023 PGA Championship Preview & Picks
Jonah Owenby
The second major of the year brings us to Rochester, New York and Oak Hill for the 2023 edition of the PGA Championship. There’s no denying that the PGA is many times viewed as a distant 4th when ranking the major tournaments. However, one of my favorite things about this event is that it’s never the same. That can certainly lead to some of the identity crisis issues the PGA has, but it also makes for an event where you don’t quite know what you are going to get. The course type can change drastically, winning scores have ranged from -22 in 2015 to -5 last year. The champions themselves have a range that is chaotic in regards to stardom. Jason Duffner won in 2013, Jimmy Walker in 2016, showing this tournament can lend its-self to some of the lesser known players. Last year Mito had it all wrapped up until his collapse for the ages on the 72nd hole. I mean 50+ year old Phil Mickelson stole one away less than TWO YEARS AGO from Brooks Koepka who dominated this event winning back to back in ’17 & ’18. JT has captured 2 of the last 6 after mounting a Sunday comeback down the stretch and defeating Will Zalatoris in a playoff last year. The PGA may not have a clear identity like the rest of the Majors do, but I think that random chaotic energy is its’ identity, and can provide us with some amazing moments. We’re even getting our first taste of dropping balls in the rough videos, as well as an internal out of bounds this week. Electric. Let’s get into it.
Tournament Details:
Dates: May 18th – May 21st
Purse: $15 Million
Course: Oak Hill Country Club
Location: Rochester, New York
Architect: Donald Ross
Par: 70
Length: 7,390 yards
Rating/Slope: 77.3/153
The Field:
As expected for a major we have an amazing field this week, and of course once again get to merge both worlds of LIV and PGA Tour players. For those that have been clammering for Talor Gooch to get into the U.S Open field, you’ll be happy to know the two time LIV winner is in the field at the PGA this week. World No. 1 Jon Rahm is looking to take the first two majors of the season and get 3/4 of the way to the career grand slam. Reigning champ Justin Thomas will need to find his game again after a slow start to the season in order to repeat, but he’s already got two Wanamaker Trophies and this tournament is emotional for him. Scottie Scheffler can put the spotlight back on him with a big week. Jordan Spieth is still looking for that elusive 4th leg of the career grand slam, but coming off a WD at his favorite event will he be able to tee it up this week and chase immortality? Brooks Koepka looked unflappable until Sunday at The Masters, and he also already has two Wanamakers on his mantle. Phil Mickelson won this event two years ago, and in Augusta proved maybe he can do it again? Surely not….right? The field is also filled with tons PGA pros who qualified (similar to the U.S Open) and we usually get at least one that makes a mini-run during the first two days. One of my favorite parts of this event.
Check out the rest of the field here.
Picks for the PGA Championship:
Top 20 Finish:
Talor Gooch +230
Dustin Johnson +120
Talor Gooch has been a big talking point in recent weeks after winning back to back LIV Tour events and taking steps back in the OWGR. He’s out of the U.S Open field currently after a last minute tweak to the wording for qualifications, so he might have something to prove this week. Clearly he’s playing some good golf over there, so let’s see if he can step up and earn his way into that field with a big finish at the PGA.
The last time I took the prior weeks LIV winner to Top 20 in a major it hit, so I’m rolling with the same logic on DJ this week. It feels like it’s been forever since I’ve seen him play, but he landed a T6 in the Open Championship last season and is undoubtedly still one of the best players in the world. He plays a cut which will be great on this golf course, and this feels a little like Bethpage in 2018 where both he and Brooks can make a run. More on him later.
Top 10 Finish:
Sungjae Im +300
Brooks Koepka +220
Sungjae came away with a T16 finish at The Masters earlier this year and is playing great golf this season with 7 Top 10’s and 12 Top 25’s in 17 events so far. He has also finished inside the Top 8 in his last three starts so he’s coming in hot. He’s 1st on tour in approaches from 225-250 this season which will go a long way on a lengthy course with some very long par 3’s, and he’s also 10th on tour in total strokes gained thus far. We’re looking for him to keep it rolling with his fourth Top 10 in a row.
We hit on Brooks to Top 20 last major, so we’re stepping up a notch and taking him to Top 10. For 3 rounds at Augusta he looked like the Brooksy of old, absolutely killing everything in his sight and looking healthy as ever. If he truly is back to being the animal he was for a four year stretch then a Top 10 here is easy money. Time will tell whether that was just a flash in the pan, but it would be silly not to give him a chance after that display in March.
It’s difficult not to take Jon Rahm right now. He’s the best player in the world, and he’s coming off his second Major win at Augusta National. So far this year he’s already knocked off 4 wins, including two designated events and that major, and racked up over $14 million dollars. He said earlier in the week that he’s feeling comfortable on this golf course, and his patent cut will prove useful around Oak Hills.
*insert Bernie Sanders meme* I am once again asking you to believe in Max Homa. The same story as the last major I took him in, he hasn’t quite gotten it done on the biggest stage yet. At some point he will, I like this golf course for a guy who is one of the best iron players in the world and realistically has almost no flaws in his game. For him it’s a matter of just stepping up. I think he can do it this week at a place where his cut will play very well, and a Top 5 / Win at this price is fantastic for a golfer of his caliber.
Swindle of the Week:
Winner in final pairing
No +175
We saw last year what can happen when it’s the 72nd hole of a major. I really think, similar to last year, that we are going to have a lot of guys within reach of this tournament on Sunday. With that in mind, we’re going with the winner will come out of somewhere other than the final pairing. Whether that is a collapse from the leader, or someone just making a run and taking it, I think we’re in for a tight leaderboard in this one.
PGA Championship FAQs
When is the PGA Championship?
The PGA Championship begins May 18th and concludes on May 21st 2023.
Who's in the field for the PGA Championship?
The field for the PGA Championship can be found on the PGA Tour Tournament site
Who won the 2022 PGA Championship?
Justin Thomas won the 2022 PGA Championship in a playoff.
Who designed Oak HIll Country Club?
Donald Ross designed Oak Hill Country Club.
How much does the winner of the PGA Championship get?
With a purse size of $15 million, the winner of the PGA Championship now gets $2.7 million.